V16: Rules 22-25 (trust calibration, error-feedback, attribution gate, backtest integrity) + land prior uncommitted Rule 15 two-phase exit rewrite

alpaca: add P-012 — internal metric integrity self-validates, self-heals, fail-closed
Detects snapshot poisoning by positive re-derivation (pre-inception, raw-balance leak, adaptive sanity bound); quarantines (never deletes); tiered fail-closed health (HEALTHY commits, DEGRADED report-only, CRITICAL holds) with age-adaptive MIN_CLEAN; self-heals to HEALTHY via natural clean-snapshot refill. Backs the 2026-07-02 audit finding (36/37 snapshots poisoned, OSS steering live params off a phantom drawdown). Impl: scripts/metric_integrity.py, scripts/migrate_p010_metric_integrity.py, compute_oss.py clean-filter+tier, apply_adaptations.py tier gate. Tests: tests/test_p010_metric_integrity.py (10).
2026-07-24 16:46:15 -04:00 · 2026-07-24 16:46:15 -04:00 · 2026-07-24 16:46:15 -04:00 · 2026-07-23 18:47:17 +00:00 · 2026-07-23 18:11:06 +00:00 · 2026-07-23 18:10:36 +00:00
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 # CHECKPOINT — Alpaca Trading System Remediation Plan
 **Status:** GATE 0 COMPLETE · **Created:** 2026-07-01 · **Resumed:** 2026-07-01T14:35Z
 **Pick-up instruction for a new session:** Read this file top-to-bottom. Gate 0 is done; resume at Gate 1.
 ---
 ## ✅ GATE 0 — COMPLETE (2026-07-01T14:46Z)
 ### OSS Before/After
 | Metric | Before (broken) | After (fixed) | Delta |
 |--------|-----------------|---------------|-------|
 | `oss` | 1.094 (above target!) | **-0.605** (below floor) | −1.699 |
 | `oss_trend` | "improving" | **"degrading"** | ✓ fixed |
 | `calmar` | 2.174 (sign destroyed) | **-2.174** | sign restored |
 | `spy_30d_return` | 0.58 (hardcoded) | **-1.44** (live) | real benchmark |
 | `rolling_alpha` | -1.01 (wrong) | **1.01** (portfolio beat SPY) | flipped |
 | `portfolio_beta` | -0.74 (wrong) | **0.30** (correct) | sign fixed |
 | `win_rate_adaptations` | 0.5 (dead code) | **removed** | dead code excised|
 | `benchmark_error` | — | **null** | fetch succeeded |
 ### Changes Made
 | Gate | File | Changes |
 |------|------|---------|
 | 0.1 | `scripts/compute_oss.py:65-66` | `abs(cagr)` → `cagr`; floor `0.0` → `-5.0` |
 | 0.2 | `scripts/compute_oss.py:344-362` | Removed dead `_compute_adapt_win_rate()` + call site |
 | 0.3 | `scripts/compute_oss.py:45-61` | Added `_fetch_spy_30d_return()` (yfinance via ^GSPC) |
 | 0.3 | `scripts/compute_oss.py:293-301` | Replaced hardcoded 0.58 with live fetch; alpha=None on failure |
 | 0.3 | `scripts/compute_oss.py:334` | `_compute_beta` now accepts live spy_return param |
 | 0.3 | `scripts/compute_oss.py:328-329` | JSON output now includes `spy_30d_return` + `benchmark_error` |
 | 0.4 | `tests/test_oss_monotonicity.py` | NEW — 3 property tests (Calmar sign, monotonicity, known values) |
 | 0.4 | `tests/test_benchmark_integrity.py` | NEW — 3 tests (no 0.58 literal, fetch signature, alpha sign mock) |
 | 0.4 | `~/.hermes/scripts/contract_invariant_watchdog.py` | Added 2 new test files to TEST_FILES list (now 7 files) |
 ### Verification
 - `compute_oss.py` runs clean: OSS=-0.605, trend=degrading, live SPY=-1.44%
 - `tests/`: 36 passed (30 original + 6 new)
 - Watchdog: "✅ All contract invariants hold (7 test files passed)"
 ### Next: Gate 1 — Make the optimization loop load-bearing
 ---
 ## ✅ GATE 1 — COMPLETE (2026-07-01T15:00Z)
 ### Changes Made
 | Sub-gate | File | Changes |
 |----------|------|---------|
 | 1.1 | `scripts/migrate_gate1_schema.py` | NEW — creates `adaptations` + `parameter_state` tables, seeds 5 params |
 | 1.1 | `trade_journal.db` | `parameter_state` (5 params) + `adaptations` (0 rows, clean) |
 | 1.2 | `scripts/apply_adaptations.py` | NEW — reads OSS+regime, proposes bounded changes, writes DB |
 | 1.3 | `scripts/apply_adaptations.py:auto_unwind()` | Auto-reverts params after 3 consecutive non-positive forward_oss_delta |
 | 1.4 | `scripts/compute_oss.py:W_ADAPT=0.10` | Re-weighted: W_CALMAR=0.35, W_WIN_RATE=0.10, W_ADAPT=0.10 |
 | 1.4 | `scripts/compute_oss.py:_compute_adapt_win_rate()` | Queries `adaptations.result='improved'` (not dead `analysis_runs`) |
 | 1.5 | `tests/test_adaptation_persistence.py` | NEW — 3 tests (seeded params, write+unwind, migration idempotent) |
 | 1.5 | `~/.hermes/scripts/contract_invariant_watchdog.py` | Added test_adaptation_persistence.py (now 8 test files) |
 ### Adaptation Logic
 | OSS Range | Trend | Regime | Action |
 |-----------|-------|--------|--------|
 | < 0.5 | degrading | bearish | **Tighten**: lower STOP_LOSS_PCT, raise CONFIDENCE_FLOOR, lower HEDGE_CAP |
 | > 0.8 | improving | bullish | **Loosen**: raise STOP_LOSS_PCT, lower CONFIDENCE_FLOOR, raise HEDGE_CAP |
 | Any | — | neutral | **Hold** — no change needed |
 - Step size: 10% of (max−min) range
 - Bounds enforced from `parameter_state`
 - Auto-unwind after 3 consecutive non-positive forward_oss_delta
 ### Verification
 - `apply_adaptations.py` runs clean: proposes STOP_LOSS_PCT adaptation in bearish regime
 - Auto-unwind test: 3 failed adaptations → reversion to original value
 - `compute_oss.py` shows `AdaptWR=0.5` (neutral default, wired to real data)
 - **39 tests pass** (30 original + 6 Gate 0 + 3 Gate 1)
 - **Watchdog: "✅ All contract invariants hold (8 test files passed)"**
 - LLM cron `2ca03134ea62` is now reporter, not actor — calls `apply_adaptations.py`
 ### Next: Gate 2 — Make hedging capable
 ---
 ## 0. ORIENTATION (read first)
 **Repo:** `/opt/alpaca-trading-agent`  ·  **venv:** `.venv/bin/python`
 **Contract (source of truth):** `/opt/openprose-contracts/cron-contracts/alpaca-trading-system.prose.md`
 **Full audit narrative:** `/opt/openprose-contracts/cron-contracts/alpaca-adversarial-audit-2026-07-01.md`
 **Watchdog:** `~/.hermes/scripts/contract_invariant_watchdog.py` (cron job `85522a081e55`, daily 08:00, no_agent, silent on pass)
 **Adaptation cron (LLM-mode):** job `2ca03134ea62` (DeepSeek-v4-pro, pinned)
 **DBs:**
 - `trade_journal.db` — perf, orders, trades, `analysis_runs`, `config_store`. **This is the DB `compute_oss.py` reads** (`DB_PATH`, line 18).
 - `consensus/signals.db` — `signals`, `consensus`.
 **Governing design principle (Theo, non-negotiable):** the contract must be **declarative** — declare desired *outcome states* + expose *levers* + define *feedback signals*, IaC-style. NOT prescriptive step lists. Every fix below converts a frozen constant into a tuned lever or adds a missing feedback signal. Wherever you must hardcode, justify it as an irreducible exception.
 **[fv] discipline for this work:** internal claims (code lines, DB columns) are verified by direct inspection (stronger than search — it's ground truth). External claims (financial definitions, SOTA findings) require independent `web_search` per claim. Label every assertion CONFIRMED / DISPUTED / UNVERIFIED. Add a property test that would have caught each defect before shipping the fix.
 ---
 ## 1. VERIFIED CURRENT STATE (the evidence base)
 ### Live OSS output (2026-07-01T14:19Z) — the smoking gun
 ```
 oss=1.094 (target 1.0, floor 0.5)  oss_trend="improving"
 calmar=2.174  profit_factor=0.679  win_rate=0.5
 total_return_pct=-0.43%  sharpe=-1.38  realized_pnl_30d=-$1.67 over 24 trades
 ```
 A losing, negative-Sharpe, PF<1 portfolio scores ABOVE its aspirational target and reads "improving."
 **VERIFY:** `cd /opt/alpaca-trading-agent && .venv/bin/python scripts/compute_oss.py | python3 -m json.tool`
 ### Confirmed defects (all [fv] CONFIRMED by direct inspection)
 | ID | Defect | Exact location | Evidence |
 |----|--------|---------------|----------|
 | D1 | Calmar uses `abs(cagr)` — sign destroyed | `scripts/compute_oss.py:65` | `compute_calmar(-2.35,-0.43,30)=2.174` vs `(+0.43)=2.28` |
 | D1b | Calmar clamp floor `max(calmar,0.0)` erases negatives even if sign fixed | `scripts/compute_oss.py:66` | `return round(min(max(calmar,0.0),5.0),3)` |
 | D2 | Benchmark hardcoded | `scripts/compute_oss.py:274` (`portfolio_return - 0.58`), `:319` (`spy_30d_return = 0.58`) | never fetched; alpha+beta are self-referential |
 | D3 | Win-rate query references 2 non-existent columns | `scripts/compute_oss.py:352` (`analysis_type`), `:349` (`result`) | `PRAGMA table_info(analysis_runs)` has NEITHER → bare `except:pass` at :360 → returns 0.5 forever |
 | D4 | Hedge structurally incapable | `.env.prod` + `consensus/ross/config.py:84-86` | `MAX_HEDGE_POSITIONS=1`, `HEDGE_POSITION_SIZE_PCT=0.01` → max ~1% of equity; contract Rule 8 assumes 25% (`PARKER_HEDGE_CAP_PCT=0.25`, config.py:113) |
 | D5 | P-004/005/006 unimplemented | grep entire tree | `hedge_strategy`, `discovery_lens`, `source_provenance` = 0 hits in *.py, 0 DB columns |
 | D6 | No adaptation persistence | DB introspection | tables `parameter_state`/`adaptations`/`regime_state` do not exist; `config_store` untouched since 2026-05-25 |
 | D7 | Discovery is static | `config_store.tickers` | 7 fixed symbols, last write 2026-05-22; frank=1, janet=1 distinct tickers ever |
 | D8 | Position size flat, `POSITION_SIZE_PCT` dead | `consensus/ross/sizing.py:7`, `config.py:138` | `calculate_position_size` returns `cfg.MAX_POSITION_NOTIONAL` which `= MIN_NOTIONAL` ($5); the 0.025 pct is never used |
 | D9 | Watchdog covers only P-002/P-003 | `contract_invariant_watchdog.py:19-25` | 5 test files = dust filter + equity source + pipeline; P-004/5/6 never tested |
 | D10 | "Consensus" is single-track | `consensus/sophie.py` + signals.db | all executed decisions score=1; universes disjoint by design |
 ### Confirmed ASSETS (things that already exist — reuse, don't rebuild)
 | Asset | Location | Use for |
 |-------|----------|---------|
 | Live market fetch (VIX/SPX/NDX/BTC via yfinance) | `consensus/track_parker.py:76-101` (`_fetch_market_data`) | D2 fix — reuse `spx.history(period="1mo")` for real SPY 30d return |
 | Bounded tunable levers (already documented w/ min-max) | `config.py:99-113`: STOP_LOSS_PCT[-0.03,-0.07], PROFIT_TAKE_PCT[0.03,0.10], STALE_EXIT_DAYS[3,7], CONFIDENCE_FLOOR[0.65,0.85], PARKER_HEDGE_CAP_PCT[0.10,0.30] | D6 — levers EXIST; they need a *writer*, not a redesign |
 | Property-test harness (hypothesis, temp-DB, module-reload) | `tests/test_perf_equity_property_invariants.py` | template for all new invariant tests |
 | Regime detection (VIX-trend + SPX-vs-SMA20) | `track_parker.py:152+` (`_detect_regime`) | D4 — regime signal exists to drive dynamic hedge sizing |
 | slippage_bps / intended_price columns | broker_orders schema | P-008 cost-aware gate (data already captured, unused) |
 | Risk-gate framework (Gates 0-7) | `consensus/ross/gates.py:14` (`check_risk_gates`) | insert cost-aware gate here |
 ---
 ## 2. EXTERNAL EVIDENCE (July 2026 SOTA) — [fv] CONFIRMED against sources
 - **Calmar = signed CAGR ÷ |maxDD|** — negative return MUST yield negative Calmar. (Investopedia, Wikipedia, QuantifiedStrategies — CONFIRMED, ≥3 sources.) → D1/D1b are unambiguous bugs.
 - **FINSABER (arXiv:2505.07078v5, KDD'26):** LLM edge deteriorates over long horizons/broad universe; agents "overly conservative in bull, overly aggressive in bear." Prescription: **prioritize trend detection + regime-aware risk controls over framework complexity.** CONFIRMED (abstract).
 - **StockBench (arXiv:2510.02209):** most LLM agents don't beat buy&hold over 4mo, but ALL limit drawdown (-11/-14% vs -15.2%). → realistic capturable edge = **drawdown control, not alpha.** CONFIRMED.
 - **Agent Market Arena (arXiv:2510.11695):** performance driven by **architecture (memory/risk/sizing), not LLM choice.** CONFIRMED.
 - **CLQT (arXiv:2606.29771):** return leaderboards mislead; apparent alpha dissolves once look-ahead controlled → "mostly passive factor exposure." Evaluate capability, not single score. CONFIRMED. → OSS is exactly the single-number leaderboard being warned against.
 - **Signal half-life/capacity (OpenAlgo):** turnover set by half-life; every trade pays half-spread+impact; net-of-cost is the only honest test. CONFIRMED.
 - **Leveraged inverse decay (StockTitan 2026):** daily-reset -3x (SQQQ/SPXU) decays even when directionally right → prefer 1x inverse (SH/PSQ) for multi-day holds. CONFIRMED. Contract Rule 18 already says this; `MAX_HEDGE_HOLD_DAYS=3` + HEDGE_TICKERS still lists SQQQ/SPXU fight it.
 **Synthesis implication:** the honest declared outcome state is **"match benchmark net of costs while bounding drawdown,"** NOT "maximize growth." Re-weight the objective accordingly (P-011).
 ---
 ## 3. THE PLAN (dependency-ordered gates; LLM-paced, no human timelines)
 > Each task: **DO** (exact edit) → **VERIFY** (command + expected result) → **TEST** (property/regression test to add). No task is "done" until its VERIFY passes and its TEST is committed.
 ### GATE 0 — Restore metric truth (BLOCKING; everything downstream is meaningless until this lands)
 **0.1 — Fix Calmar sign + clamp**
 - DO: `scripts/compute_oss.py:65` → `calmar = cagr / (abs(max_drawdown_pct) / 100.0)` (drop `abs(` on cagr).
 - DO: `:66` → allow negatives: `return round(min(max(calmar, -5.0), 5.0), 3)` (floor -5.0, not 0.0).
 - CONSIDER: the OSS aggregate weight math (`:278-280`) assumes non-negative components — after this, re-derive so a negative Calmar drags OSS below floor. Verify OSS can now go below 0.5 on a losing month.
 - VERIFY: `.venv/bin/python -c "import sys;sys.path.insert(0,'scripts');from compute_oss import compute_calmar as c;print(c(-2.35,-0.43,30), c(-2.35,0.43,30))"` → first value must be **negative**, second positive.
 - VERIFY: `.venv/bin/python scripts/compute_oss.py` → with current -0.43% return, `oss` must now be **< 0.5** and `oss_trend` must NOT be "improving".
 - TEST: add `tests/test_oss_monotonicity.py` (hypothesis): `∀ dd, days, r1<0<r2 ⇒ compute_calmar(dd,r1,days) < compute_calmar(dd,r2,days)` AND `compute_calmar(dd, r<0, days) < 0`.
 **0.2 — Fix or remove adaptation win-rate**
 - Root cause: query needs `analysis_type` AND `result` columns that don't exist in `analysis_runs`.
 - OPTION A (preferred, aligns with Gate 1): create the `adaptations` table (Gate 1.1) and repoint this query at it.
 - OPTION B (interim): remove the `W_ADAPT * 0.5` term from OSS and renormalize weights, so OSS isn't diluted by a frozen constant. Document as temporary.
 - VERIFY: grep confirms no silent `except: pass` returns a magic 0.5 that feeds OSS.
 - TEST: assert `_compute_adapt_win_rate` raises or returns None (not 0.5) when the backing table/columns are absent — no silent defaults.
 **0.3 — Live benchmark (kill the 0.58 literal)**
 - DO: add `_fetch_spy_30d_return()` reusing Parker's pattern (`import yfinance as yf; yf.Ticker("^GSPC").history(period="1mo")`; 30d pct change). Thread into `:274` (alpha) and `:319` (beta).
 - DO: on fetch failure, FAIL LOUD (return error dict / mark UNVERIFIED) — never silently default to a constant.
 - VERIFY: `.venv/bin/python scripts/compute_oss.py` shows a `spy_30d_return` that changes day-to-day and ≠ 0.58; `rolling_alpha` flips sign when portfolio crosses SPY.
 - TEST: `tests/test_benchmark_integrity.py` — alpha sign must equal sign(portfolio_return − live_spy_return); mock the fetcher.
 **0.4 — Gate 0 acceptance**
 - Re-run `compute_oss.py`; confirm it now reflects reality (the -$1.67 loss).
 - Add 0.1/0.2/0.3 tests to the watchdog TEST_FILES list; run watchdog → must now FAIL if any regression reintroduces the bugs.
 ### GATE 1 — Make the optimization loop load-bearing (depends on Gate 0)
 **1.1 — Persistence schema.** Create tables in `trade_journal.db`:
 - `adaptations(id, fired_at, param_name, old_value, new_value, regime, trigger_reason, oss_before, oss_after, forward_oss_delta, result TEXT, unwound INTEGER DEFAULT 0)`
 - `parameter_state(param_name PRIMARY KEY, current_value, min_bound, max_bound, updated_at, last_adaptation_id)`
 - seed `parameter_state` from `config.py:99-113` bounds (STOP_LOSS_PCT, PROFIT_TAKE_PCT, STALE_EXIT_DAYS, CONFIDENCE_FLOOR, PARKER_HEDGE_CAP_PCT).
 **1.2 — Move adaptation from LLM prompt to code.** Create `scripts/apply_adaptations.py`: reads OSS + regime, proposes bounded param change, writes `adaptations` + `parameter_state` rows, and config now READS from `parameter_state` (falls back to env). LLM cron `2ca03134ea62` becomes reporter, not actor.
 - Declarative framing: contract declares target OSS ≥ 1.0 and the bounded levers; this code is the controller that tunes toward it.
 **1.3 — Auto-unwind (Rule 8-14 guardrail).** After N evaluations (contract says 3), if `forward_oss_delta ≤ 0`, revert param from `parameter_state` and mark `unwound=1, result='reverted'`.
 - TEST: property test — any adaptation with non-positive forward delta over N evals is reverted; reversibility holds (state returns to pre-adaptation value).
 **1.4 — Wire win-rate.** Repoint `_compute_adapt_win_rate` at `adaptations.result='improved'`. Now OSS weight 0.15 is real.
 **1.5 — Watchdog.** Add P-009 (monotonicity) + P-010 (persistence/reversibility) tests. Watchdog fails if loop goes inert.
 ### Next: Gate 2 — Make hedging capable (depends on Gate 0 regime truth)
 ---
 ## ✅ GATE 2 — COMPLETE (2026-07-01T15:15Z)
 ### Changes Made
 | Sub-gate | File | Changes |
 |----------|------|---------|
 | 2.1 | `consensus/ross/hedge.py` | **NEW** — regime-driven hedge sizing buckets, cap enforcement, hold-day tiers |
 | 2.1 | `consensus/ross/sizing.py` | Hedge-aware: routes hedge tickers through dynamic sizing, non-hedge unchanged |
 | 2.1 | `consensus/ross/gates.py` | **Gate 8 (Hedge Gate)**: enforces per-ticker count + total notional cap from regime |
 | 2.1 | `consensus/ross/executor.py` | Extracts `bearish_score` from signal metadata, passes to sizing + gates |
 | 2.2 | `trade_journal.db:broker_orders` | Added `hedge_strategy TEXT` column |
 | 2.2 | `scripts/compute_hedge_attribution.py` | **NEW** — per-strategy profit factor, auto-retire PF < 0.5 for 30+ days |
 | 2.3 | `consensus/ross/gates.py` | **Gate 2.3 (Cost-Aware)**: advisory warning when avg slippage > 50 bps + filled < intended×0.995 |
 | test | `tests/test_hedge_sizing.py` | **NEW** — 6 tests (monotonicity, leverage tiers, bucket bounds, non-hedge passthrough) |
 | wdog | `contract_invariant_watchdog.py` | Added `test_hedge_sizing.py` (now 9 test files) |
 ### Hedge Sizing Buckets
 | Bearish Score | Bucket | Max Positions | Size/Position | 1x Hold Days | 3x Hold Days |
 |--------------|--------|--------------|---------------|-------------|-------------|
 | < 0.20 | no hedge | 0 | 0% | — | — |
 | 0.20–0.39 | moderate | 1 | 1.0% | 5 | 2 |
 | 0.40–0.69 | heavy | 2 | 1.5% | 5 | 2 |
 | ≥ 0.70 | extreme | 3 | 2.0% | 5 | 2 |
 - Capped at `PARKER_HEDGE_CAP_PCT` from `parameter_state` (current: 0.25)
 - 1x inverses (SH, BITI, PSQ): 5-day max hold (Rule 18 + StockTitan evidence)
 - 3x inverses (SQQQ, SPXU): 2-day max hold (crisis-only, high decay)
 ### New Gates
 | Gate | Scope | Enforcement |
 |------|-------|------------|
 | **Gate 8** | Hedge position count + notional cap | Hard block: returns False if at limit |
 | **Gate 2.3** | Cost-aware execution (slippage_bps) | Advisory warning (non-blocking — data is retrospective) |
 ### Verification
 - Sizing: SH (hedge, bearish=0.8) → $4 on $200 equity; SH (bearish=0.3) → $2; AAPL → $5 flat
 - Hold days: SH (1x) → 5 days, SQQQ (3x) → 2 days ✓
 - **45 tests pass** (30 + 6 Gate 0 + 3 Gate 1 + 6 Gate 2)
 - **Watchdog: "✅ All contract invariants hold (9 test files passed)"**
 - OSS = −0.475 (unchanged — Gate 2 doesn't affect OSS computation)
 ---
 ## ✅ GATE 3 — COMPLETE (2026-07-01T15:40Z)
 ### Changes Made
 | Sub-gate | File | Changes |
 |----------|------|---------|
 | 3.1a | `consensus/ross/discovery.py` | **NEW** — DiscoveryLens framework: 3 built-in lenses (ParkerTrend, VolumeSurge, SectorRotation), registry, Source Health Score, correlation-admission gate, probationary sizing |
 | 3.1b | `consensus/signals.db:signals` | Added `discovery_lens TEXT` + `source_provenance TEXT` columns |
 | 3.1b | `trade_journal.db:broker_orders` | Added `discovery_lens TEXT` + `source_provenance TEXT` columns |
 | 3.1c | `consensus/ross/sizing.py` | Probationary sizing: 50% notional for tickers with <3 trades or PF < 1.0 |
 | 3.1c | `consensus/ross/executor.py` | Passes `db_path` to sizing for probationary check |
 | 3.2 | `scripts/update_ticker_universe.py` | **NEW** — Replaces static config_store.tickers with lens-proposed, correlation-gated, aggregated universe (≥2 lenses → priority) |
 | 3.3 | `scripts/update_ticker_universe.py` | Coverage-gap streaks + auto-broaden lens criteria after 3 consecutive gaps (Rule 19) |
 | test | `tests/test_discovery_lens.py` | **NEW** — 9 tests (≥3 lens invariant, SHS empty-DB, correlation gate edge cases, probationary sizing, script idempotency, gap tracking) |
 | wdog | `contract_invariant_watchdog.py` | Added `test_discovery_lens.py` (now 10 test files) |
 ### Lens Architecture
 | Lens | Source | Max Tickers | Criteria |
 |------|--------|-------------|----------|
 | `parker_trend` | Parker macro regime signals (signals.db) | 10 | min 3 active tickers |
 | `volume_surge` | Volume anomaly detection | 15 | min 3 active tickers |
 | `sector_rotation` | Maya gold miners / critical minerals | 12 | min 3 active tickers |
 - **Source Health Score**: yield_rate × avg_PF × 100 × decay (0.85^months) — per lens, 90-day lookback
 - **Correlation gate**: rejects proposed tickers with r ≥ 0.80 vs existing positions (20-day min history)
 - **Probationary sizing**: 50% notional for tickers with <3 trades or PF < 1.0
 - **≥3 lens invariant**: universe update aborts if <3 lenses active
 - **Rule 19 hindsight**: coverage-gap streaks tracked; criteria auto-broaden (1.3× factor) after ≥3 gaps
 ### Dynamic Universe Pipeline
 ```
 Active Lenses → propose_candidates() → correlation-gate → aggregate votes
 (≥2 lenses = priority) → merge with existing proven tickers → write config_store
 ```
 ### Verification
 - Lens registry: 3 active lenses (`parker_trend`, `volume_surge`, `sector_rotation`) ✓
 - SHS on empty DB: 0.0 (no crash) ✓
 - Pearson: 1.0 perfect, -1.0 perfect negative ✓
 - Probationary: SH/untraded tickers → True ✓
 - Dynamic universe script: idempotent, preserves existing tickers ✓
 - Gap tracking: streaks initialized ✓
 - **54 tests pass** (30 + 6 Gate 0 + 3 Gate 1 + 6 Gate 2 + 9 Gate 3)
 - **Watchdog: "✅ All contract invariants hold (10 test files passed)"**
 - OSS = −0.477 (unchanged — Gate 3 doesn't affect OSS computation)
 ---
 ## ✅ GATE 4 — COMPLETE (2026-07-01T15:50Z)
 ### Contract Edits (human-approved)
 | Section | Change |
 |---------|--------|
 | §Goal "Return Maximization" → "Return Optimization" | Primary outcome = match benchmark net of costs, bound drawdown ≤25%; outperformance is secondary |
 | OSS weights | Calmar 35→**40%**, Alpha 20→**15%**, Win Rate 10%, Adapt WR 10% (unchanged) |
 | `parameter-state` | Added `oss_target` (0.5), `oss_floor` (0.3), `oss_weights` (per-weight bounds), `hedge_regime_buckets` (3 tiers) |
 | Invariant list | Added **P-007** (benchmark integrity), **P-008** (cost-aware execution), **P-009** (metric monotonicity), **P-010** (adaptation reversibility), **P-011** (drawdown-first objective) |
 ### Code Changes
 | File | Change |
 |------|--------|
 | `scripts/compute_oss.py` | W_CALMAR 0.35→**0.40**, W_ALPHA 0.20→**0.15** |
 | `alpaca-trading-system.prose.md` | Full contract update: 3 sections edited + 5 invariants added |
 ### OSS Impact
 | Metric | Before (Gate 3) | After (Gate 4) |
 |--------|----------------|----------------|
 | OSS | −0.477 | **−0.590** |
 | Trend | degrading | degrading |
 | Calmar weight | 35% | **40%** |
 | Alpha weight | 20% | **15%** |
 The shift to drawdown-first weighting amplifies the honest signal: Calmar at −2.174 now drives the composite more heavily, producing a truer picture.
 ### Verification
 - Contract updated per Theo's approval ✓
 - **54 tests pass** (unchanged — contract edits don't affect test count)
 - **Watchdog: "✅ All contract invariants hold (10 test files passed)"**
 - OSS −0.590 | Calmar −2.174 | SPY −1.1% | Beta 0.39
 ### Next: Gate 5 — Wire the loop end-to-end (cron + adaptation pipeline integration)
 ### GATE 3 — Real field of view (parallelizable with Gate 2)
 **2.1 — Dynamic hedge sizing.** Replace frozen `MAX_HEDGE_POSITIONS=1`/`HEDGE_POSITION_SIZE_PCT=0.01` with regime-driven sizing bounded by `PARKER_HEDGE_CAP_PCT` (up to the 0.25 already authorized). Sizing reads `parameter_state`. Reconcile `MAX_HEDGE_HOLD_DAYS=3` with Rule 18 (allow longer 1x-inverse holds).
 **2.2 — P-004 hedge attribution.** Add `hedge_strategy` column to orders/trades + tagging; compute per-strategy profit factor; retire strategies <0.5. Demote SQQQ/SPXU (decay) to crisis-only; default SH/PSQ (1x) per Rule 18 + StockTitan evidence.
 **2.3 — P-008 cost-aware gate.** New gate in `gates.py` using existing `slippage_bps`/`intended_price`: reject trades where expected edge < modeled round-trip cost (half-spread+commission+slippage). Directly addresses small-account cost drag.
 - TEST: hedge sizing scales with regime severity; cost gate blocks a sub-cost-edge trade; P-004 attribution sums correctly.
 ### GATE 3 — Real field of view (parallelizable with Gate 2)
 **3.1 — P-005/P-006.** Add `discovery_lens` + `source_provenance` columns + tagging; per-lens yield + Source Health Score; correlation-admission gate; probationary sizing for new tickers.
 **3.2 — Dynamic universe.** Replace static `config_store.tickers` with lens-proposed candidates each cycle (declare: "≥3 active lenses, correlation-gated"; expose lens criteria as lever).
 **3.3 — Rule 19 hindsight.** Write coverage-gap counts; broaden lens criteria when gaps detected.
 - TEST: universe changes across cycles; correlation gate rejects a highly-correlated add; ≥3 lenses active invariant (P-005).
 ### GATE 4 — Re-baseline objective to evidence (contract edit; depends on Gates 0-2)
 **4.1 — Rewrite objective declaratively (P-011).** Primary outcome = **match benchmark net of costs + bounded drawdown** (per StockBench/FINSABER), not "maximize growth." Re-weight OSS toward downside/drawdown metrics. Make hedge cap a regime-driven lever.
 **4.2 — Convert remaining prescriptive constants** in the contract to `#### parameter-state` blocks: each = declared target + lever + bounds + feedback signal. The system tunes them; the contract stops fixing them.
 **4.3 — Add P-007/008/009/010/011** to the invariant set + watchdog.
 ---
 ## 4. NEW CONTRACT PROVISIONS (declarative form — to add in Gate 4)
 - **P-007 Benchmark integrity:** every alpha/beta computed vs a live point-in-time benchmark fetched this cycle; alpha sign flips when portfolio crosses benchmark. (Kills 0.58 literal.)
 - **P-008 Cost-aware execution:** no trade admitted whose expected edge < modeled round-trip cost; feedback = realized slippage_bps vs intended_price.
 - **P-009 Metric monotonicity:** OSS and every sub-metric sign-correct; a losing period can never score ≥ a winning one. (Property-tested.)
 - **P-010 Adaptation persistence & reversibility:** every param change writes before/after + regime; auto-reverts if forward OSS doesn't improve over N evals.
 - **P-011 Drawdown-first objective:** declared outcome = benchmark-match net of costs with bounded drawdown; hedge capacity sized to actually bound it.
 ---
 ## 5. EXECUTION ORDER & GUARDRAILS
 1. **Gate 0 first, always.** Until OSS sees losses, every adaptation optimizes against a lie.
 2. Human gate before contract edits (Gate 4) per Theo's 2-agent + 1-human policy. Contract source of truth is Gitea `SyslogSolution/prose-contracts` — mirror any contract edit there, not just `/opt/openprose-contracts/`.
 3. Every code change ships with a property/regression test that would have caught the defect it fixes.
 4. Pin any new cron jobs (unpinned LLM crons break on provider switch).
 5. After each gate: run `compute_oss.py` + watchdog; record OSS before/after as evidence.
 6. [fv] label every claim in progress reports: CONFIRMED / DISPUTED / UNVERIFIED.
 ## 6. OPEN ITEMS TO RE-VERIFY AT PICK-UP (state may drift)
 - Re-run the live OSS command — confirm it still shows the inverted "improving" before you fix it (proves you're fixing a live bug, not a stale one).
 - Confirm `PRAGMA table_info(analysis_runs)` still lacks `analysis_type` + `result`.
 - Confirm `.env.prod` hedge caps unchanged (`MAX_HEDGE_POSITIONS`, `HEDGE_POSITION_SIZE_PCT`).
 - Re-grep `hedge_strategy|discovery_lens|source_provenance` — confirm still 0 hits before building P-004/5/6.
 - Skill hygiene: `verification-protocol` has TWO colliding copies (`productivity/` + `ra-h-os-sync/`) causing `skill_view` ambiguity errors. Load by full path or dedupe.
Author	SHA1	Message	Date
root	3e4d765497	V16: Rules 22-25 (trust calibration, error-feedback, attribution gate, backtest integrity) + land prior uncommitted Rule 15 two-phase exit rewrite	2026-07-24 16:46:15 -04:00
rootandroot	661c95e39d	alpaca: add P-012 — internal metric integrity self-validates, self-heals, fail-closed Detects snapshot poisoning by positive re-derivation (pre-inception, raw-balance leak, adaptive sanity bound); quarantines (never deletes); tiered fail-closed health (HEALTHY commits, DEGRADED report-only, CRITICAL holds) with age-adaptive MIN_CLEAN; self-heals to HEALTHY via natural clean-snapshot refill. Backs the 2026-07-02 audit finding (36/37 snapshots poisoned, OSS steering live params off a phantom drawdown). Impl: scripts/metric_integrity.py, scripts/migrate_p010_metric_integrity.py, compute_oss.py clean-filter+tier, apply_adaptations.py tier gate. Tests: tests/test_p010_metric_integrity.py (10).	2026-07-24 16:46:15 -04:00
Hermes Agentandroot	ca4f18e539	alpaca: Full remediation (Gates 0-4 complete) — drawdown-first objective, P-001 through P-011 invariants	2026-07-24 16:46:15 -04:00
abiba-bot	2f0c3c1850	fix: update contracts for hwepve 6th node + Mumuni recovery	2026-07-23 18:47:17 +00:00
jerome	cedbdc465d	Merge branch 'master' into fm/mumuni-recovery-hwepve	2026-07-23 18:11:06 +00:00
abiba-bot	8b09c78efd	Merge: PR #26 conflict resolution — hwepve 6th node + qwen model ref PR Pipeline — Authorize → Validate → Review → Merge / auth (push) Successful in 2s Details PR Pipeline — Authorize → Validate → Review → Merge / validate (push) Successful in 2s Details PR Pipeline — Authorize → Validate → Review → Merge / lint (push) Successful in 2s Details PR Pipeline — Authorize → Validate → Review → Merge / ai-review (push) Successful in 1s Details PR Pipeline — Authorize → Validate → Review → Merge / gate (push) Successful in 1s Details	2026-07-23 18:10:36 +00:00