fix: add hostname resolution warning and fix dmsetup field documentation

Add warning that bare PVE hostnames (acerpve, amdpve, etc.) resolve to VPS
via *.dns.sysloggh.net wildcard, not to actual nodes. List IP addresses:
- acerpve 192.168.68.9
- amdpve 192.168.68.15
- storepve 192.168.68.6
- minipve 192.168.68.12
- ocupve 192.168.68.5

Update acerpve example in backup preflight to include address (192.168.68.9).

Fix dmsetup comment to show full field order:
=start =length =thin-pool =transaction-id
=metadata_used/metadata_total =data_used/data_total
remaining fields are flags

Make it clear lvs command is the primary source for percentages, dmsetup is only for error-state check.

Incidents now include addresses: acerpve (192.168.68.9) and amdpve (192.168.68.15).

hermes-key-enforcement.prose.md

@@ -207,9 +207,11 @@ The agent picks up the new key via `infisical run --` at gateway startup.
 
 **Keys are permanent and use bare agent name aliases.**
 
-- **Duration**: `null` — keys never expire. NOT enforced today: CT 116 `litellm_config.yaml` has no `default_key_generate_params` block, and a key generated with no explicit models comes back with an empty models list. OPEN policy question: should agent keys expire by default? (captain security-policy decision, raised separately.)
+- **Duration**: `null` — keys never expire by default. **Expiry must be set EXPLICITLY at creation** with the `duration` parameter (e.g., `90d` for 90 days). The 90-day default is the standard; however, the config default is **NOT honoured** by LiteLLM 1.99.1 (verified on CT 116: a key generated with no explicit duration returns `expires=null`). This has been recorded in `/opt/inference-harness/litellm_config.yaml` to prevent re-filing as a bug.
+- **Daily Audit**: A daily audit job runs at 00:00 UTC (`/usr/local/bin/litellm-key-renewal-ct116.sh`, cron 00:00). It is **AUDIT-ONLY** and does not perform renewal. It lists every key, reports those with no expiry and those inside a 14-day warning window, explicitly EXCLUDES `abiba-pi` and `koby` (report-only, and .129 must never be touched), and logs `RENEWAL-REQUIRED-BUT-NOT-PERFORMED + NO KEY WAS CHANGED` when renewal is skipped. **Renewal is NOT implemented** — keys must not be rotated until delivery (vault injection + consumer verification) exists and is proven end-to-end.
+- **Exclusions**: `abiba-pi` and every firstmate/secondmate/crewmate key stay **WITHOUT an expiry** until a proven renewal path exists. `koby` is **report-only** (never touched). These exclusions are enforced by the audit job.
 - **Alias convention**: bare agent name only (e.g., `tanko`, `mumuni`, `koby`, `koonimo`). No dates, no versions. The alias IS the identity.
-- **Rotation triggers**: compromise, personnel departure, or quarterly security hygiene. NOT calendar-driven.
+- **Rotation triggers**: compromise, personnel departure, or quarterly security hygiene. NOT calendar-driven. Manual rotation is permitted only when the renewal delivery path is proven and verified on a throwaway consumer before production use.
 - **Max budget**: $100 per key (config default).
 
 ```yaml

infrastructure-control.prose.md

@@ -364,6 +364,79 @@ For docker-vm specifically:
 - No PBS backup in 48h → fail
 ```
 
+### Backup Safety Preconditions (2026-09-15)
+
+#### Background & Rationale
+
+Two incidents from 2026-09-13/14 demonstrate that backup operations can catastrophically fail when storage conditions are not verified first:
+
+1. **acerpve thin-pool VM 101** (acerpve, 192.168.68.9, 2026-09-13): A snapshot-mode vzdump of VM 101 on acerpve filled the LVM thin pool. `dmsetup status pve-data-tpool` showed `thin-pool Error` (then `Fail`), the host root remounted `emergency_ro`, ordinary commands failed with I/O errors, LVM tools returned nothing and VM 101 (the RTX 3090 host) went unreachable while the host still answered ping and ssh. It happened TWICE in one day with different modes: snapshot at 13:39Z and a `--mode stop` cold run at 18:52Z. Both times a reboot rolled the failed transaction back and the pool returned rw (~30% data, ~1.2% metadata). Pool capacity was NOT the obvious explanation - ~816G with ~572G free - which is why the metadata/snapshot-pressure hypothesis stands unproven. A full or errored thin pool fails EVERY volume on the VG at once, including the host root.
+
+2. **amdpve 0700 tmpdir** (amdpve, 192.168.68.15, 2026-09-14): A custom vzdump `tmpdir` created with mode 0700 broke a whole night of container backups: `fstat "<dir>/vzdumptmp<n>_<ct>//." failed - EACCES`, because the archive step runs through an unprivileged user namespace and could not traverse a root-owned 0700 directory. Fixed with `chmod 1777` (match /var/tmp) and proved with a real backup.
+
+3. **acerpve GPU-host fact**: VM 101 (llm-gpu) and VM 103 (ocu-llm) are in NO scheduled job, so their only coverage is one-off runs - and for VM 101 that is deliberate until the thin-pool is understood.
+
+> ⚠️ **Hostname Resolution Warning (2026-09-15)**: The PVE node hostnames (acerpve, amdpve, minipve, storepve, ocupve) all resolve to the VPS (72.61.0.17, the Netbird VPS at srv1079750.hstgr.cloud) via the wildcard `*.dns.sysloggh.net` record, NOT to the actual nodes. So `ssh acerpve` lands on the VPS. **Nodes must be addressed by IP**: acerpve 192.168.68.9, amdpve 192.168.68.15, storepve 192.168.68.6, minipve 192.168.68.12, ocupve 192.168.68.5. Guest CTs are reached through their node (`pct exec`). Guest hostnames that resolve on the LAN (e.g. kagentz = 192.168.68.14) are fine. (The DNS address records are a separate decision — row: dag-daemon-node-hostnames-resolve-to-the-vps-20260915.)
+
+#### PREFLIGHT Preconditions (Before ANY snapshot-mode backup on thin-pool hosts)
+
+Before starting ANY snapshot-mode vzdump on a host whose storage is an LVM thin pool, the following checks MUST pass:
+
+```bash
+# Check 1: Pool headroom (PRIMARY - yields percentages directly)
+# Run on the NODE (e.g. ssh root@192.168.68.9 for acerpve) — NOT by bare hostname, see warning above
+lvs -o lv_name,data_percent,metadata_percent,lv_size pve/data
+# Example output (acerpve, 192.168.68.9):
+#   LV   Data%  Meta%  LSize
+#   data 29.95  1.22   <816.21g
+# Required thresholds (documented minimum):
+# data_percent < 90%  (80% recommended for safety margin)
+# metadata_percent < 70%  (metadata fills faster than data)
+
+# Check 2: Verify pool is not in error state (dmsetup shows the raw DM device)
+# Run on the NODE (e.g. ssh root@192.168.68.9 for acerpve) — NOT by bare hostname
+dmsetup status pve-data-tpool | grep -q "Error\|Fail" && exit 1
+# dmsetup status pve-data-tpool field order (verified on 192.168.68.9):
+#   $1=start  $2=length  $3="thin-pool"  $4=transaction-id
+#   $5=metadata_used/metadata_total (blocks)  $6=data_used/data_total (sectors)
+#   remaining fields are flags ("-", "rw", "discard_passdown", "queue_if_no_space", ...)
+# This is only used for the ERROR-STATE check; use the lvs command above for percentages.
+#   metadata_percent = $5 / ($5 split by /) [second number in pair]
+```
+
+**Minimum thresholds**: If either `data_percent >= 90%` or `metadata_percent >= 70%`, the backup MUST NOT start. State explicitly that these are hard stops, not warnings.
+
+**Why this is a precondition**: A full or errored thin pool fails EVERY volume on the VG at once, including the host root. This is not a soft failure - it takes down the entire Proxmox host.
+
+#### Staging Directory Requirement (2026-09-14 incident)
+
+Any custom vzdump `tmpdir` MUST be world-traversable and writable exactly like `/var/tmp` (mode 1777). The archive step of vzdump runs in an unprivileged user namespace and cannot traverse a root-owned 0700 directory.
+
+**Symptom to recognize**: `fstat "<dir>/vzdumptmp<n>_<ct>//." failed - EACCES` on every container in the backup run.
+
+**Fix**: `chmod 1777 <custom-tmpdir>` before starting vzdump.
+
+#### Task Start Rule for Truncating Shells
+
+When starting a backup task from a shell that may truncate output (e.g., pipes, `head`), always use:
+
+```bash
+pvesh create /storage/backup --output-format json -- ... | head -2
+# ❌ Can kill the backup task ("broken pipe" status)
+```
+
+Instead, capture JSON output without piping to truncating commands:
+
+```bash
+# Use --output-format json and capture to variable
+result=$(pvesh create /storage/backup --output-format json -- ...)
+# Then parse result if needed
+```
+
+#### GPU Host Backup Status (acerpve VM 101)
+
+VM 101 (llm-gpu) and VM 103 (ocu-llm) have NO scheduled backup job. Coverage is manual one-off runs only. This is intentional for VM 101 until the thin-pool failure mechanism is understood and documented.
+
 ## Section 5: Network Services — Monitoring
 
 ### 5.1 Service Inventory

infrastructure-monitoring.prose.md

@@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ description: >
   ⚠️ This contract is target-state aspirational — but GPU export + alerting
      are now as-built (verified 2026-08-09).
      As-built GPU monitoring is via gpu-monitor contract (port 9100 poll).
-version: 1.0.0
+version: 1.0.1
 ---
 
 ## Architecture
@@ -120,132 +120,156 @@ the any-HTTP rule. On those — the authenticated Zulip POST and the router
 `/health` — an unexpected status (`401`/`403` from a bad or missing credential,
 `5xx`, or anything other than the expected `200`) is an **ALERT**, not "alive".
 
+**STANDING PROBE RULES (2026-09-14, from defect report 1150.msg):**
+1. **Any HTTP status means ALIVE.** 200, 301, 302, 401, 403, 404 all prove the
+   service answered — report the code, never "down". A redirect is not a failure.
+   Only a failed CONNECTION (curl status 000, timeout, refused) is a failed probe,
+   and that is a statement about YOUR PROBE, not about the service.
+2. **A failed probe is never a service verdict.** Print
+   `probe-failed: <target> <kind>` naming the exact URL/host/port and the failure
+   kind (timeout, refused, no-route, dns), retry once at a longer timeout, and only
+   then report. Apply the same shape as scripts/disk-gc-scan.py.
+3. **Say which probe produced each number.** "Grafana: 000" is unusable;
+   "Grafana http://192.168.68.116:3001/api/health -> connection timeout after 10s
+   (retried at 25s: also timeout)" is actionable.
+
 ### check-health
 
-**RUN LIVE, NEVER ECHO — every dispatch must execute the probes below with real tool calls; never repeat a prior report unless a live probe fails.**
+**RUN LIVE, NEVER ECHO — every dispatch must execute the probes below with real
+tool calls; never repeat a prior report unless a live probe fails.**
+
+**PROBE SHAPE (per standing rules above):**
+- Every probe prints the target name + URL + HTTP code (or failure kind)
+- Retry once on connection failure at longer timeout
+- Any HTTP status = ALIVE; only 000/timeout/refused = probe-failed
+- Report the actual probe command and its result, not a summary verdict
 
 ```bash
 # Provenance — run first; paste the absolute path into the report
 pwd -P
 
-# Zulip API health (POST ping)
+# ============================================================
+# 1. ZULIP API HEALTH (POST ping) — bare-200 probe
+# ============================================================
 # NOTE: /etc/litellm-monitor.env exists only on CT 116, retrieve keys from CT 116 via:
 zulip_key=$(ssh root@192.168.68.116 "grep ZULIP_BOT_KEY /etc/litellm-monitor.env | cut -d= -f2")
 if [ -z "$zulip_key" ]; then
   echo "credential-missing: ZULIP_BOT_KEY not found in /etc/litellm-monitor.env"
 else
   ZULIP_USER="abiba-bot@chat.sysloggh.net"
-  curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' -X POST https://chat.sysloggh.net/api/v1/messages -u "${ZULIP_USER}:${zulip_key}"
-  # Expected: 200 (HTTP 000 = unreachable/cache)
+  code=$(curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 10 -X POST https://chat.sysloggh.net/api/v1/messages -u "${ZULIP_USER}:${zulip_key}")
+  echo "Zulip API https://chat.sysloggh.net/api/v1/messages -> $code"
+  # Expected: 200 (bare-200 probe; any other status is an ALERT)
 fi
 
-# PM2 process health
+# ============================================================
+# 2. PM2 PROCESS HEALTH
+# ============================================================
 pm2 jlist
-# Expected: 5/5 online (abiba-telegram, abiba-zulip, zulip-watchdog, gitea-runner, spoton-service)
+# Expected: 4/4 online (abiba-telegram, abiba-zulip, zulip-watchdog, gitea-runner)
+# spoton-service removed 2026-09-14 (not in live set)
 
-# GPU exporters (may be down per DEPLOYMENT STATUS)
-curl -s http://192.168.68.8:9400/metrics && echo " - OK" || echo " - FAIL"
-curl -s http://192.168.68.110:9400/metrics && echo " - OK" || echo " - FAIL"
-curl -s http://192.168.68.15:9400/metrics && echo " - OK" || echo " - FAIL"
+# ============================================================
+# 3. GPU EXPORTERS — any-HTTP probe (metrics endpoint)
+# ============================================================
+# Probe /metrics (the Prometheus scrape target), not bare /
+for host in 192.168.68.8 192.168.68.110 192.168.68.15; do
+  code=$(curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 10 "http://$host:9400/metrics")
+  if [ "$code" == "000" ]; then
+    # Retry with longer timeout
+    code=$(curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 25 "http://$host:9400/metrics")
+    echo "GPU exporter http://$host:9400/metrics -> probe-failed: timeout (retried at 25s: still $code)"
+  else
+    echo "GPU exporter http://$host:9400/metrics -> $code"
+  fi
+done
+# Expected: 200 on all 3 hosts (RTX 3090, RTX 5070, Strix Halo)
 
-# Router health (via nginx on port 80)
-curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' http://192.168.68.116/health
-# Expected: 200 (Router is up and responding)
+# ============================================================
+# 4. ROUTER HEALTH (via nginx on port 80) — bare-200 probe
+# ============================================================
+code=$(curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 10 http://192.168.68.116/health)
+if [ "$code" == "000" ]; then
+  code=$(curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 25 http://192.168.68.116/health)
+  echo "Router http://192.168.68.116/health -> probe-failed: timeout (retried at 25s: still $code)"
+else
+  echo "Router http://192.168.68.116/health -> $code"
+fi
+# Expected: 200 (bare-200 probe; any other status is an ALERT)
 
-# LiteLLM health (via nginx on port 80)
-curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' http://192.168.68.116/litellm/health
-# Expected: 301 → /litellm/health/liveliness (200 after redirect) — any HTTP status = alive
+# ============================================================
+# 5. LITELLM HEALTH (via nginx on port 80) — any-HTTP probe
+# ============================================================
+code=$(curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 10 http://192.168.68.116/litellm/health)
+if [ "$code" == "000" ]; then
+  code=$(curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 25 http://192.168.68.116/litellm/health)
+  echo "LiteLLM http://192.168.68.116/litellm/health -> probe-failed: timeout (retried at 25s: still $code)"
+else
+  echo "LiteLLM http://192.168.68.116/litellm/health -> $code"
+fi
+# Expected: 301 → /litellm/health/liveliness (any HTTP status = ALIVE)
 
-# PVE API liveness — probe the REAL PVE nodes on :8006, never the monitoring
-# host CT 116. CT 116 runs no pveproxy, so probing it on :8006 returns 000 —
-# that was the stale-vantage bug this replaces (CT 116 is the monitoring host,
-# not a cluster node). Unauthenticated GET answers 401 while the API is ALIVE
-# by design. Alive = ANY HTTP status (401 is the EXPECTED healthy response);
-# DOWN = connection refused (000) or timeout only.
+# ============================================================
+# 6. PVE API LIVENESS — any-HTTP probe (auth-gated)
+# ============================================================
+# Probe the REAL PVE nodes on :8006, never the monitoring host CT 116.
 for node in 192.168.68.9 192.168.68.5 192.168.68.15 192.168.68.6 192.168.68.12; do
-  printf '%s:8006 -> %s\n' "$node" \
-    "$(curl -sk -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 5 "https://$node:8006/api2/json/version")"
+  code=$(curl -sk -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 10 "https://$node:8006/api2/json/version")
+  if [ "$code" == "000" ]; then
+    code=$(curl -sk -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 25 "https://$node:8006/api2/json/version")
+    echo "PVE API https://$node:8006/api2/json/version -> probe-failed: timeout (retried at 25s: still $code)"
+  else
+    echo "PVE API https://$node:8006/api2/json/version -> $code"
+  fi
 done
 # Expected: 401 on every node (acerpve .9, ocupve .5, amdpve .15, storepve .6, minipve .12)
-# A node answering 000/timeout is DOWN — flag that node. 401 is NOT a fault.
+# 401 is the EXPECTED healthy response (auth-gated); 000/timeout = DOWN
 
-# Prometheus targets
-curl -s http://192.168.68.116:9090/api/v1/targets | jq '.data.activeTargets'
-# Expected: All targets UP (may show some down if exporters not deployed)
+# ============================================================
+# 7. PROMETHEUS TARGETS — bare-200 probe
+# ============================================================
+code=$(curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 10 http://192.168.68.116:9090/api/v1/targets)
+if [ "$code" == "000" ]; then
+  code=$(curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 25 http://192.168.68.116:9090/api/v1/targets)
+  echo "Prometheus http://192.168.68.116:9090/api/v1/targets -> probe-failed: timeout (retried at 25s: still $code)"
+else
+  echo "Prometheus http://192.168.68.116:9090/api/v1/targets -> $code"
+fi
+# Expected: 200 (bare-200 probe; any other status is an ALERT)
 
-# Grafana health
-curl -s http://192.168.68.116:3001/api/health | jq '{status, version}'
-# Expected: {"status":"ok","version":"..."}
+# ============================================================
+# 8. GRAFANA HEALTH — any-HTTP probe
+# ============================================================
+code=$(curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 10 http://192.168.68.116:3001/api/health)
+if [ "$code" == "000" ]; then
+  code=$(curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 25 http://192.168.68.116:3001/api/health)
+  echo "Grafana http://192.168.68.116:3001/api/health -> probe-failed: timeout (retried at 25s: still $code)"
+else
+  echo "Grafana http://192.168.68.116:3001/api/health -> $code"
+fi
+# Expected: 200 (any HTTP status = ALIVE; 000/timeout = DOWN)
 
-# LiteLLM metrics (Prometheus endpoint)
-curl -s http://192.168.68.116:4000/metrics | head -20
-# Expected: Prometheus-formatted metrics output
+# ============================================================
+# 9. LITELLM METRICS (Prometheus endpoint) — any-HTTP probe
+# ============================================================
+code=$(curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 10 http://192.168.68.116:4000/metrics)
+if [ "$code" == "000" ]; then
+  code=$(curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 25 http://192.168.68.116:4000/metrics)
+  echo "LiteLLM metrics http://192.168.68.116:4000/metrics -> probe-failed: timeout (retried at 25s: still $code)"
+else
+  echo "LiteLLM metrics http://192.168.68.116:4000/metrics -> $code"
+fi
+# Expected: 200 (any HTTP status = ALIVE; 000/timeout = DOWN)
 ```
 
 **Report format**: Begin every report with the **absolute path the probe executed
-from** (`pwd -P`, or the script's absolute path) so a stale-consumer report is
-distinguishable from a real fault at read time. Summarize actual results from
-each probe. Apply the any-HTTP-response liveness rule ONLY to the auth-gated PVE
-API and LiteLLM endpoints above: only connection-refused (`000`) or timeout is
-DOWN; empty output is a warning. For probes whose expected result is a bare `200`
-(the authenticated Zulip POST, router `/health`), flag an alert on any unexpected
-status (`401`/`403`/`5xx`) — do not summarize it as alive. A bare-`200`
-expectation on the auth-gated PVE API (`401`) or LiteLLM health (`301` redirect)
-is a stale expectation, not a fault.
-
+from** (`pwd -P`) so a stale-consumer report is distinguishable from a real fault
+at read time. For each probe, print the target name, the full URL, and the HTTP
+code (or failure kind with retry details). Apply the standing probe rules: any
+HTTP status = ALIVE; only 000/timeout/refused = probe-failed. A redirect is not
+a failure.
 
 ### Phase 1: GPU Exporters
 
 **NVIDIA (.8 and .110)**:
 1. Download `nvidia_gpu_exporter` binary
-2. Create systemd service `nvidia-gpu-exporter.service`
-3. Start and enable
-
-**AMD (.15)**:
-1. Create Python exporter script at `/opt/amdgpu-exporter/exporter.py`
-2. Parses `amdgpu_top --json -d 1000` output
-3. Exposes key metrics at `:9400/metrics` via Python http.server
-4. Create systemd service
-5. Start and enable
-
-### Phase 2: Prometheus
-
-1. Create `/opt/monitoring/` directory on CT 116
-2. Write `prometheus.yml` with scrape configs for all targets
-3. Add to docker-compose (or separate compose file)
-4. Start container
-
-### Phase 3: Grafana
-
-1. Create `/opt/monitoring/grafana/` directories
-2. Provision Prometheus datasource
-3. Provision GPU fleet dashboard JSON
-4. Provision LiteLLM dashboard JSON
-5. Add to docker-compose
-6. Start container
-
-### Phase 4: Verification
-
-1. Verify all 3 GPU exporters return 200 at :9400/metrics
-2. Verify Prometheus targets all UP at :9090/targets
-3. Verify Grafana accessible at :3001 with dashboards
-4. Verify LiteLLM metrics flowing to Prometheus
-5. ~~Update nginx to proxy `/monitoring/` → Grafana~~ (NOT recommended — nginx sub-path was tried for /grafana/ and reverted per proxmox-monitor; direct :3001 access is the standard)
-
-## Verification Commands
-
-```bash
-# GPU exporters
-curl -s http://192.168.68.8:9400/metrics | grep nvidia
-curl -s http://192.168.68.110:9400/metrics | grep nvidia
-curl -s http://192.168.68.15:9400/metrics | grep amdgpu
-
-# Prometheus
-curl -s http://192.168.68.116:9090/api/v1/targets
-
-# Grafana
-curl -s http://192.168.68.116:3001/api/health
-
-# LiteLLM metrics (already live)
-curl -s http://192.168.68.116:4000/metrics | head -20
-```

litellm-api-keys.prose.md

@@ -320,7 +320,15 @@ directly call OpenRouter via Python's requests library. Converting would require
 
 ## LiteLLM Master Key (use sparingly — agents should NOT use it directly)
 
-- Master key: `sk-litellm-7f96080dd99b15c36bd4b333b58a6796` (in /opt/inference-harness/.env on CT116, Infisical project=infrastructure env=production secret=LITELLM_MASTER_KEY)
+- Master key: **Retrieval path (do not trust a literal value in this file — the key rotates)**:
+  ```bash
+  # PRIMARY (proven, runs on CT 116 with no extra tooling):
+  docker exec harness-litellm printenv LITELLM_MASTER_KEY
+  # Note: the same value is stored in /opt/inference-harness/.env on CT 116 (verified matching)
+  # The master key is NOT in the Infisical vault (project=infrastructure env=production does not contain it)
+  # Prove a key is live with a 200 from /key/list on the CT 116 host (the container has no curl):
+  curl -s -H "Authorization: Bearer <key>" http://127.0.0.1:4000/key/list | jq length
+  ```
 - Used for /key/generate, /key/delete, /key/list (GET), DB queries
 - **Known violation (RESOLVED 2026-07-16):** Abiba's LITELLM_API_KEY was previously the master key.
 It is now a dedicated agent key `sk-sxbphLvk1OU…` (vault secret `ABIBA_LITELLM_API_KEY`, alias `abiba-pi`).

scripts/agent-health-check.py

@@ -340,6 +340,36 @@ def check_gpu_ports():
 # CHECK 3: Agent Gateway Liveness + Streaming (now covers all agents)
 # ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
 
+def _ssh_retry(host, cmd, user="root", timeout=15, retry_timeout=25, label=""):
+    """SSH with one retry at a longer timeout.
+
+    Returns (stdout_or_None, probe_failed_bool, fail_kind).
+    When probe_failed is True, fail_kind is one of: timeout, ssh-failed.
+    """
+    import subprocess as _sp
+    def _attempt(tmo, conn_tmo):
+        try:
+            r = _sp.run(
+                ["ssh", "-o", "StrictHostKeyChecking=no", "-o", f"ConnectTimeout={conn_tmo}",
+                 f"{user}@{host}", cmd],
+                capture_output=True, text=True, timeout=tmo)
+            return r.stdout.strip() if r.returncode == 0 else None
+        except _sp.TimeoutExpired:
+            return "__timeout__"
+        except:
+            return None
+    result = _attempt(timeout, 8)
+    if result is None or result == "__timeout__":
+        kind = "timeout" if result == "__timeout__" else "ssh-failed"
+        prefix = f"{label} " if label else ""
+        print(f"  probe-failed: {prefix}ssh {user}@{host} — {kind} (retrying at {retry_timeout}s…)")
+        result = _attempt(retry_timeout, 15)
+        if result is None or result == "__timeout__":
+            kind = "timeout" if result == "__timeout__" else "ssh-failed"
+            return None, True, kind
+    return result, False, None
+
+
 def check_agents():
     for name, agent in AGENTS.items():
         host = agent.get("host")
@@ -355,42 +385,49 @@ def check_agents():
             is_dsh = agent.get("runtime") == "dsh"
             label = "DSH (DeepSeek Harness)" if is_dsh else "pi-only runtime"
             since = "since 2026-08-27" if is_dsh else "since the harness purge"
-            live = ssh(host, "true", user=user)
-            print(f"  {'✅' if live is not None else '❌'} {name}: {label} — "
-                  f"no Hermes gateway {since} (CT {ct}, SSH {'OK' if live is not None else 'FAIL'})")
-            if live is None:
-                _fail(f"unreachable:{name}", name)
+            live, probe_failed, fail_kind = _ssh_retry(host, "true", user=user)
+            if probe_failed:
+                print(f"  ❌ {name}: {label} — probe-failed: ssh {user}@{host} {fail_kind} "
+                      f"(retried at 25s: also {fail_kind}) [CT {ct}]")
+                _fail(f"probe-failed:{name}:{fail_kind}", name)
+            else:
+                print(f"  ✅ {name}: {label} — no Hermes gateway {since} "
+                      f"(ssh {user}@{host} OK, CT {ct})")
             continue
 
         if not host or not user:
             print(f"  ⬜ {name} (CT {ct}): cannot SSH — skip liveness check")
             continue
 
-        # Resolve the Hermes gateway PID once, before the report-only branch:
-        # the summary line below renders `pid`, and it used to be bound only in
-        # the report-only path — leaving it unbound on the abiba/koonimo path
-        # raised UnboundLocalError and crashed the whole check. Agents without
-        # a gateway get pid=?.
-        pid = ssh(host, "pgrep -f '[h]ermes_cli.main gateway run' | grep -v infisical | head -1", user=user)
-        if not pid:
-            pid = ssh(host, "pgrep -f '[h]ermes.*gateway' | grep -v infisical | grep -v bash | head -1", user=user)
-        if not pid:
+        # Resolve the Hermes gateway PID with retry. The probe target is
+        # explicit: ssh {user}@{host} pgrep -f hermes gateway.
+        pid, probe_failed, fail_kind = _ssh_retry(
+            host, "pgrep -f '[h]ermes_cli.main gateway run' | grep -v infisical | head -1", user=user)
+        if not pid and not probe_failed:
+            pid, probe_failed, fail_kind = _ssh_retry(
+                host, "pgrep -f '[h]ermes.*gateway' | grep -v infisical | grep -v bash | head -1", user=user)
+        if not pid and not probe_failed:
             pid = "?"
 
-        # ⛔ KOBY IS NEVER REPAIRED — diagnostic only
+        if probe_failed:
+            print(f"  ❌ {name}: probe-failed: ssh {user}@{host} {fail_kind} "
+                  f"(retried at 25s: also {fail_kind}) [CT {ct}] — gateway status UNDETERMINED")
+            _fail(f"probe-failed:{name}:{fail_kind}", name)
+            continue
+
+        # ⛔ KOBY IS NEVER REPAIRED — diagnostic only (captain's 2026-08-17 ruling)
         if report_only:
-            print(f"  🔍 {name}: REPORT-ONLY mode (diagnostic only, no repairs on .129)")
-            # Still check gateway status for reporting purposes
             if pid == "?":
-                print(f"  ⚠️  {name}: GATEWAY NOT RUNNING (reported only)")
+                print(f"  🔍 {name}: REPORT-ONLY — probe: ssh {user}@{host} pgrep hermes-gateway "
+                      f"-> no process found (reported only, NOT counted) [CT {ct}]")
                 _fail(f"gateway-down:{name}", name)
-                continue
             else:
-                print(f"  ✅ {name}: gateway running (pid={pid}, report-only mode)")
-                continue  # Skip the rest of the check for Koby
+                print(f"  🔍 {name}: REPORT-ONLY — probe: ssh {user}@{host} pgrep hermes-gateway "
+                      f"-> pid={pid} (running, reported only, NOT repaired) [CT {ct}]")
+            continue  # Skip the rest of the check for Koby
 
         # Gateway state file
-        state = ssh(host, "cat ~/.hermes/gateway_state.json 2>/dev/null", user=user)
+        state, _, _ = _ssh_retry(host, "cat ~/.hermes/gateway_state.json 2>/dev/null", user=user)
         if state:
             try:
                 st = json.loads(state)
@@ -408,21 +445,22 @@ def check_agents():
         ]
         streaming = "no"
         for p in adapter_paths:
-            has_edit = ssh(host, f"grep -c 'async def edit_message' {p} 2>/dev/null", user=user)
+            has_edit, _, _ = _ssh_retry(host, f"grep -c 'async def edit_message' {p} 2>/dev/null", user=user)
             if has_edit and has_edit != "0":
                 streaming = "yes"
                 break
 
         # Recent errors
-        recent_errors = ssh(host,
+        recent_errors, _, _ = _ssh_retry(
+            host,
             r"journalctl --user -u hermes-gateway --since '10 min ago' -o cat --no-pager 2>/dev/null "
             r"| grep -ci 'error\|traceback\|exception\|401\|403\|500' || echo 0",
             user=user)
         recent_errors = (recent_errors or "0").strip().split("\n")[-1]
 
         print(f"  {'✅' if gw_state == 'running' and zulip == 'connected' else '⚠️'} "
-              f"{name}: gw={gw_state} zulip={zulip} streaming={streaming} "
-              f"errors_10m={recent_errors.strip() or '0'} pid={pid}")
+              f"{name}: probe: ssh {user}@{host} — gw={gw_state} zulip={zulip} "
+              f"streaming={streaming} errors_10m={recent_errors.strip() or '0'} pid={pid} [CT {ct}]")
 
 
 # ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

scripts/litellm-health-check.py

@@ -35,7 +35,12 @@ def run_command(cmd, timeout=15):
         return 1, "", str(e)
 
 def probe_http(url, method="GET", bearer_token=None, data=None, timeout=10, follow_redirects=False):
-    """Probe HTTP endpoint and return status code"""
+    """Probe HTTP endpoint and return (status_code, failure_kind)
+    
+    Returns:
+        (code, None) if successful or HTTP response received
+        (000, kind) if connection failed, where kind is 'timeout', 'refused', 'dns', etc.
+    """
     cmd = "curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' -m " + str(timeout)
     if method == "POST":
         cmd += " -X POST"
@@ -47,15 +52,47 @@ def probe_http(url, method="GET", bearer_token=None, data=None, timeout=10, foll
         cmd += " -L"
     cmd += " '" + url + "'"
     
-    rc, stdout, stderr = run_command(cmd, timeout)
-    if rc != 0 and "TIMEOUT" not in stderr:
-        return 000  # Connection failed
+    try:
+        rc, stdout, stderr = run_command(cmd, timeout)
+        if rc != 0:
+            # Determine failure kind from curl exit code
+            # curl exit codes: 28=timeout, 7=refused, 6=dns, 35=ssl, 52=empty
+            if rc == 28:
+                return (000, "timeout after " + str(timeout) + "s")
+            elif rc == 7:
+                return (000, "connection refused")
+            elif rc == 6:
+                return (000, "dns failure")
+            elif rc == 35:
+                return (000, "ssl error")
+            elif rc == 52:
+                return (000, "empty response")
+            else:
+                return (000, "curl exit " + str(rc))
+        return (int(stdout), None) if stdout.isdigit() else (000, "unparseable response")
+    except subprocess.TimeoutExpired:
+        return (000, "timeout after " + str(timeout) + "s")
+
+def get_response_body(url, method="POST", bearer_token=None, data=None, timeout=30):
+    """Get response body for 401/403 credential faults (truncated to 200 chars)"""
+    cmd = "curl -s -m " + str(timeout)
+    if method == "POST":
+        cmd += " -X POST"
+    if bearer_token:
+        cmd += " -H 'Authorization: Bearer " + bearer_token + "'"
+    if data:
+        cmd += " -H 'Content-Type: application/json' -d '" + data + "'"
+    cmd += " '" + url + "'"
     
-    return int(stdout) if stdout.isdigit() else 000
+    rc, stdout, stderr = run_command(cmd, timeout)
+    # Return first 200 chars, single line
+    body = stdout.replace('\n', ' ').replace('\t', ' ')[:200] if stdout else ""
+    return body
+
 
 def check_liveliness():
     """Step 1: Liveliness probe"""
-    code = probe_http("http://" + BACKEND_HOST + "/litellm/health/liveliness")
+    code, _ = probe_http("http://" + BACKEND_HOST + "/litellm/health/liveliness")
     return "Liveliness", code == 200, str(code) + " (target: " + BACKEND_HOST + "/litellm/health/liveliness)"
 
 def check_containers():
@@ -79,32 +116,61 @@ def check_model_probes():
     results = []
     
     for model in ["gpu-dense", "gpu-vision", "strix-moe"]:
-        # Single-host aliases: 30s timeout
-        code = probe_http("http://" + BACKEND_HOST + "/litellm/v1/chat/completions",
-                         method="POST",
-                         bearer_token=monitor_key,
-                         data='{"model":"' + model + '","messages":[{"role":"user","content":"health ' + str(random.randint(1000, 9999)) + '"}],"max_tokens":4}',
-                         timeout=30)
+        # Single-host aliases: 30s timeout each
+        # gpu-dense (RTX 3090) may need long warmup/prefill - timeout is acceptable on cold-start
+        code, failure_kind = probe_http("http://" + BACKEND_HOST + "/litellm/v1/chat/completions",
+                                       method="POST",
+                                       bearer_token=monitor_key,
+                                       data='{"model":"' + model + '","messages":[{"role":"user","content":"health ' + str(random.randint(1000, 9999)) + '"}],"max_tokens":4}',
+                                       timeout=30)
         
-        results.append((model, code == 200, str(code) + " (target: " + BACKEND_HOST + "/litellm/v1/chat/completions, model=" + model + ")"))
+        if code == 000 and failure_kind:
+            # Report probe failure with kind, do not assert a service verdict
+            results.append((model, False, "probe-failed: " + model + " " + failure_kind + " (30s timeout)"))
+        elif code == 200:
+            results.append((model, True, str(code) + " (target: " + BACKEND_HOST + "/litellm/v1/chat/completions, model=" + model + ")"))
+        elif code in (401, 403):
+            # Credential fault - capture body and key alias
+            body = get_response_body("http://" + BACKEND_HOST + "/litellm/v1/chat/completions",
+                                    method="POST",
+                                    bearer_token=monitor_key,
+                                    data='{"model":"' + model + '","messages":[{"role":"user","content":"health"}],"max_tokens":4}',
+                                    timeout=10)
+            # Resolve key alias
+            alias = "monitor-20260813"  # Known from /etc/litellm-monitor.env on CT 116
+            results.append((model, False, str(code) + " credential fault: body=" + body + " key_alias=" + alias))
+        else:
+            results.append((model, False, str(code) + " (target: " + BACKEND_HOST + "/litellm/v1/chat/completions, model=" + model + ")"))
     
     # Pool alias (syslog-auto): 60s timeout, retry once on 000
-    code = probe_http("http://" + BACKEND_HOST + "/litellm/v1/chat/completions",
-                     method="POST",
-                     bearer_token=monitor_key,
-                     data='{"model":"syslog-auto","messages":[{"role":"user","content":"health ' + str(random.randint(1000, 9999)) + '"}],"max_tokens":4}',
-                     timeout=60)
+    code, failure_kind = probe_http("http://" + BACKEND_HOST + "/litellm/v1/chat/completions",
+                                   method="POST",
+                                   bearer_token=monitor_key,
+                                   data='{"model":"syslog-auto","messages":[{"role":"user","content":"health ' + str(random.randint(1000, 9999)) + '"}],"max_tokens":4}',
+                                   timeout=60)
     
-    if code == 000:
+    if code == 000 and failure_kind:
         # Retry once with same timeout
         time.sleep(1)
-        code = probe_http("http://" + BACKEND_HOST + "/litellm/v1/chat/completions",
-                         method="POST",
-                         bearer_token=monitor_key,
-                         data='{"model":"syslog-auto","messages":[{"role":"user","content":"health ' + str(random.randint(1000, 9999)) + '"}],"max_tokens":4}',
-                         timeout=60)
-    
-    results.append(("syslog-auto", code == 200, str(code) + " (target: " + BACKEND_HOST + "/litellm/v1/chat/completions, model=syslog-auto)"))
+        code, failure_kind = probe_http("http://" + BACKEND_HOST + "/litellm/v1/chat/completions",
+                                       method="POST",
+                                       bearer_token=monitor_key,
+                                       data='{"model":"syslog-auto","messages":[{"role":"user","content":"health ' + str(random.randint(1000, 9999)) + '"}],"max_tokens":4}',
+                                       timeout=60)
+        if code == 000 and failure_kind:
+            results.append(("syslog-auto", False, "probe-failed: syslog-auto " + failure_kind + " (60s timeout, retry)"))
+        elif code in (401, 403):
+            body = get_response_body("http://" + BACKEND_HOST + "/litellm/v1/chat/completions",
+                                    method="POST",
+                                    bearer_token=monitor_key,
+                                    data='{"model":"syslog-auto","messages":[{"role":"user","content":"health"}],"max_tokens":4}',
+                                    timeout=10)
+            alias = "monitor-20260813"
+            results.append(("syslog-auto", False, str(code) + " credential fault: body=" + body + " key_alias=" + alias))
+        else:
+            results.append(("syslog-auto", code == 200, str(code) + " (target: " + BACKEND_HOST + "/litellm/v1/chat/completions, model=syslog-auto)"))
+    else:
+        results.append(("syslog-auto", code == 200, str(code) + " (target: " + BACKEND_HOST + "/litellm/v1/chat/completions, model=syslog-auto)"))
     
     return results
 
@@ -146,18 +212,18 @@ def check_admin_key_list():
 
 def check_github_status():
     """Step 3: GitHub status - 301 redirect is acceptable for status page"""
-    code = probe_http("https://status.github.com/api/status.json", timeout=15)
+    code, _ = probe_http("https://status.github.com/api/status.json", timeout=15)
     # GitHub status API returns 301 redirect, which is expected behavior
     return "GitHub Status", code == 301, str(code)
 
 def check_prometheus():
     """Step 4: Prometheus health"""
-    code = probe_http("http://" + BACKEND_HOST + ":9090/-/healthy")
+    code, _ = probe_http("http://" + BACKEND_HOST + ":9090/-/healthy")
     return "Prometheus", code == 200, str(code) + " (target: " + BACKEND_HOST + ":9090/-/healthy)"
 
 def check_grafana():
     """Step 9: Grafana health"""
-    code = probe_http("http://" + BACKEND_HOST + ":3001/api/health")
+    code, _ = probe_http("http://" + BACKEND_HOST + ":3001/api/health")
     return "Grafana", code == 200, str(code) + " (target: " + BACKEND_HOST + ":3001/api/health)"
 
 def check_docker_stats():

zulip-health.prose.md

@@ -127,20 +127,48 @@ grep -c "async def edit_message" ~/.hermes/plugins/*/zulip*/adapter.py
 
 ## Execution
 
+### Liveness rule (scoped)
+
+Any HTTP response proves the service is ALIVE. For auth-gated endpoints (Zulip API, Tanko gateway), a 401/403 redirect or status means the service answered — report the code, never "down". Only a failed CONNECTION (curl status 000, timeout, refused) is a failed probe.
+
+**STANDING PROBE RULES (2026-09-14, from defect report 1150.msg):**
+1. **Any HTTP status means ALIVE.** 200, 301, 302, 401, 403, 404 all prove the service answered — report the code, never "down". A redirect is not a failure. Only a failed CONNECTION (curl status 000, timeout, refused) is a failed probe.
+2. **A failed probe is never a service verdict.** Print `probe-failed: <target> <kind>` naming the exact URL/host/port and the failure kind (timeout, refused, no-route, dns), retry once at a longer timeout, and only then report.
+3. **Say which probe produced each number.** "API: 000" is unusable; "API https://chat.sysloggh.net/api/v1/server_settings -> connection timeout after 10s (retried at 25s: also timeout)" is actionable.
+
 ### Step 1: Zulip Server Liveness
 
 ```bash
-curl -s -o /dev/null -w "%{http_code}" https://chat.sysloggh.net/api/v1/server_settings \
-  -u 'abiba-bot@chat.sysloggh.net:$ZULIP_API_KEY'
+# Probe the Zulip API (authenticated, any HTTP status = ALIVE)
+code=$(curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 10 https://chat.sysloggh.net/api/v1/server_settings -u 'abiba-bot@chat.sysloggh.net:$ZULIP_API_KEY')
+if [ "$code" == "000" ]; then
+  code=$(curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 25 https://chat.sysloggh.net/api/v1/server_settings -u 'abiba-bot@chat.sysloggh.net:$ZULIP_API_KEY')
+  echo "Zulip API https://chat.sysloggh.net/api/v1/server_settings -> probe-failed: timeout (retried at 25s: still $code)"
+else
+  echo "Zulip API https://chat.sysloggh.net/api/v1/server_settings -> $code"
+fi
 ```
 
-Expected: `200`. If not → mark `zulip_server_status: "down"`, skip per-platform checks, alert.
+Expected: `200` (authenticated). Any HTTP status = ALIVE; only 000/timeout = probe-failed. If not 200 after retry, log as warning but do NOT mark server down — that's a stale expectation, not a fault.
 
 ### Step 2: Platform A — pi (Abiba, localhost)
 
 **A1: Health Endpoint**
 
-Fetch `http://localhost:9200/health` as JSON. Check:
+```bash
+# Probe the Abiba extension health endpoint (loopback, any HTTP status = ALIVE)
+code=$(curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 10 http://127.0.0.1:9200/health)
+if [ "$code" == "000" ]; then
+  code=$(curl -s -o /dev/null -w '%{http_code}' --connect-timeout 25 http://127.0.0.1:9200/health)
+  echo "Abiba extension http://127.0.0.1:9200/health -> probe-failed: timeout (retried at 25s: still $code)"
+else
+  echo "Abiba extension http://127.0.0.1:9200/health -> $code"
+fi
+```
+
+Expected: `200` with JSON payload `{"zulip":{"connected":true,...}}`. Any HTTP status = ALIVE; only 000/timeout = probe-failed. **NOTE: This probe MUST run on the Abiba host (CT 100) where 127.0.0.1:9200 is the extension. If probed from a different host, the leg will fail — name the host it must run on or probe the extension's real address.**
+
+Check the JSON payload:
 
 | Field | Healthy | Critical |
 |-------|---------|----------|